Growth in the Aftermath of War:
Aid Effectiveness in Post-Conflict Locations

Single Authored
Working Paper

I investigate if foreign aid supports subnational development in post-conflict African countries and examine heterogeneous effects of the fighting intensity a district was exposed to by introducing a novel conflict intensity index. Employing a panel of 5418 African districts over a period from 1996 to 2015, estimates indicate the overall effectiveness of aid. However, depending on the intensity of experienced fatalities, the total impact on nighttime light growth is mitigated or even negative for post-conflict districts. Nevertheless, post-conflict districts experience a rebound effect through substantial additional growth in economic activity. Further, there is evidence for within-country spillover effects.

Borders at Risk: The Impact of Russian Aggression on FDI

with Manuel Oechslin
SSRN Working Paper

We examine how multinational corporations respond to location-specific changes in the expected costs of war. We exploit the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a shock to the likelihood of military confrontation along NATO’s eastern flank. Using georeferenced FDI data and a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment intensity, we show that locations closer to Russia experienced significantly larger post invasion declines in FDI. A one standard deviation increase in proximity is associated with a 2.6 percentage point larger reduction in investment. Our findings indicate that firms adjust investment in response to spatially differentiated implications of war risk.

Consolidating Power in Fragile States: Evidence from Afghanistan’s Poppy Ban

with Sydney A. Gordon
Work in Progress

UNDP Project - NTL Analysis on the Economic Consequences of Sudan Conflict 2023

with Giorgia Giovannetti and Tommaso Pacetti
Work in Progress